Negotiating with no cards
As Zelenskyy said, “I’m not playing cards. I’m very serious, Mr President.”
“I said thankyou in this cabinet”. “I will wear a costume.”
He needs a translator- every foreign leader needs a translator to even the playing field, to give you time to think.
“President Zelensky’s primary negotiation error has been attempting to engage in a principles-based negotiation with a counterpart who favours transactional deal-making. When Zelensky appeals to democratic principles, territorial integrity and international law, he’s speaking a negotiation language that Trump doesn’t understand.
Classic negotiation research suggests Zelensky should have structured negotiations around US economic interests rather than western unity or moral imperatives.
The EU’s experience negotiating Brexit provides a relevant template for addressing the Ukraine conflict. The appointment of Michel Barnier as chief negotiator, backed by a bloc of 27 nations, proved effective despite initial scepticism.
A similar approach could work for Ukraine. Appointing an authoritative chief negotiator with a clear mandate could be successful. Barnier, economist and former Italian prime minister Mario Draghi or ex-German chancellor Angela Merkel are obvious candidates. This structure might neutralise Trump’s preference for one-on-one, power-based deals and force negotiations on terms more aligned with European interests.”
The 27 against the one were in a strong position as long as no-one broke… and no-one broke.
The UK had nothing.
If you don’t have anything to negotiate with, how can you negotiate?
full transcript here
https://foreignpolicy.com/2025/02/28/trump-zelensky-meeting-transcript-full-text-video-oval-office/
J.D. Vance: For four years, in the United States of America, we had a president who stood up in press conferences and talked tough about Vladimir Putin, and then Putin invaded Ukraine and destroyed a significant chunk of the country. The path to peace and the path to prosperity is maybe engaging in diplomacy. We tried the pathway of Joe Biden, of thumping our chest and pretending that the president of the United States’ words mattered more than the president of the United States’ actions. What makes America a good country is America engaging in diplomacy. That’s what President Trump is doing.
Has Biden’s approach been successful? But can anyone negotiate with Putin- what is the West offering him?
Be careful with the phrase “with respect”- it always means “I have absolutely no respect for you, I think you’re an idiot”
Zelensky: Have you ever been to Ukraine to see what problems we have? Come once.
I’m not sure about this- obviously I understand Zelensky’s frustration (to put it mildly) but when you visit a country how much do you really get to see and understand ? As an English teacher, I’ve lived and worked in 6 countries for at least 2 years- what did I learn from that? Surely only anecdotes. I have never visited the United States but I think I understand it as well as any of these 6 countries, if it’s possible to “understand” a country of 350 million people. I don’t understand Trump- what drives him, what is he trying to achieve? If we take Trump and Vance at face value- a big if- what they’re saying seems reasonable- work on the minerals, a pragmatic deal rather than some grand statement of the universality of human rights and freedom, and standing side by side and hand in hand with our brothers in arms but in practice what should they actually do?
Of course there are problems with Ukraine- some of the billions have gone missing- they always do, see the statement on finance from the Pentagon the day before 9.11. As Lord Acton said, “Power tends to corrupt”- so everywhere we have power we have corruption.
Next:
“Zelensky: First of all, during the war, everybody has problems, even you. But you have a nice ocean and don’t feel [the problems] now. But you will feel it in the future.
Donald Trump: You don’t know that.
Zelensky: God bless, you will not have war.
Trump: Don’t tell us what we’re going to feel. We’re trying to solve a problem.
Zelensky: I’m not. I’m answering the question that…
Trump: You’re in no position to dictate what we’re going to feel. We’re going to feel very good.
Zelensky: You are going to feel influenced…
Trump: We’re going to feel very good and very strong. You’re, right now, not in a very good position. You’ve allowed yourself to be in a very bad position. You don’t have the cards right now with us.”
This, I’m afraid, is pure bat-shit. It has absolutely no connection to reality and most people like to feel some connection with reality. I don’t think Trump does- he lives in a world entirely governed by his own rules and beliefs (so far..).
*
At least 3 times Trump mentions cards. Zelensky mutters that he’s not playing a card game but it’s lost in the general melee/scrum/chaos/shitshow.
It gets worse.
“Zelensky: Please, you think that if you will speak very loudly…
Trump: He is not speaking loudly. Your country is in big trouble.
Zelensky: I know. Can I ask…
Trump: No, no, you’ve done a lot of talking. Your country is in big trouble.
Zelensky: I know.
Trump: You’re not winning this. You have a damn good chance of coming out okay because of us.
So: is it possible that Trump and Vance are trying not to appear to be on Ukrain’s side so they can act as neutral negotiators/peacemakers?
Do they even have a plan or are they just flexing power IN THE OVAL OFFICE?
(Have you noticed previous Presidents were referred to as “The White House” but Trump is usually “The Oval Office”?)